AN ECONOMY NO LONGER IN FULL BLOOM

      On a planet full of tumult, the Federal Republic of Neoliliana, a product of the breakup of the FCLR, stands out for its quiet orderliness. Not involved in power struggles abroad or political turmoil at home, the technologically advanced, thickly populated nation of about 80 million people goes placidly about its business under its distinctive swallow- tailed flag. But lately its business in the narrow sense of the word has become its biggest problem.       In the administrative capital of Portalpas on July 14, Finance Minister Gerlin Marens disclosed to the other members of the Cabinet that the nation has suffered a loss in real GDP for the third straight quarter. This meets the official definition of a recession, he told them glumly.                              But Minister Marens has not, in fact, succumbed to gloom: "This is purely a strategic downturn of the economy," he insisted. "It will even itself out. The new globalization has forced our industry to grow thinner and more competitive to survive, and in the long run, that will provide benefits for all Neoliliani."

      On Temple Street, heart of the Neoliliani financial district, analysts were not surprised by the news. "You'd have to be hiding in a basement since the FCLR to not have seen this coming," said one stockbroker.              "The strike [of Neoliliani miners] was simply the last and greatest of death throes," said another, more pessimistic businessman, who told the national news service that he would be leaving the country for greener pastures in Estontetso. "My family is already there," he confessed.
      The reassurances of the Finance Minister are not, however, universally credited, even within the government. Although officials publicly maintain a solid wall of reassuring smiles and seemed to support Mr. Marens's reassuring version of the nature of the difficulties, they privately confirmed fears that the recession would deepen into a serious depression.                                                    And they are putting their money where their mouths are, so to speak. Many admitted that they had begun to lose their confidence in the banks and the monetary system, and so planned to withdraw their savings for conversion into Christiana Crowns as a hedge against further devaluation of the guilder."                                     One citizen, interviewed standing at his place in line before a bank-teller's window, wryly pointed out: "When a coin is worth more for its metal content than it is as a currency, there's something wrong with the system."            According to our source inside the Neoliliani Finance Ministry, the current value of the 1 guilder coin, made of 75% nickel, is 1.02 guilders for its metal. A further drop in the exchange value of the coinage will produce serious repercussions throughout the nation's financial system. At week's end, there was an air of uncertainty pervading Neoliliani society. Could the government manage to fic things before it was too late to prevent the current downturn making itself permanent and deepening into a full-scale depression? That very word sends tremors of anxiety down the spines of a people who have grown used to their prosperous and comfortable life in one of the Vex's hitherto most stable and, one is almost tempted to say, complacent nations.